US-Iran Standoff Grinds On as Conflict Nears 100-Day Milestone
(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. and Iran remained at loggerheads over any potential truce heading into the weekend, as the conflict neared the 100-day mark and Tehran reiterated that it and Oman hold joint sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for roughly a fifth of the world's oil shipments.
Following overnight skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon, Iran continued to insist on a ceasefire there before reaching any deal with the U.S. A military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, told CNN that “the ball is in Trump’s court” when it comes to a diplomatic resolution, demanding the unfreezing of $24 billion in Iranian assets as a precondition.
President Donald Trump has insisted for months that Iran is near its breaking point. On Friday, he told reporters, “We’re having great success with Iran,” adding that “they’re in no position to have a nuclear weapon.” But in an interview with NBC News during a trip to Wisconsin, the president conceded that Iran still retains some missile and drone capability — contradicting his earlier claim that the U.S. had “totally destroyed” the country’s military capacity and left it “virtually decapitated.” He estimated Iran still possesses about 21–22% of its pre-conflict missile inventory.
“It’s a lot of missiles, but it’s not what it was when we first attacked,” Trump told the network.
U.S. Central Command said Friday evening that American forces shot down four more Iranian one-way attack drones heading toward the Strait of Hormuz, and subsequently struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites in Goruk and on Qeshm Island. Earlier in the day, the U.S. announced it had seized a sanctioned oil supertanker it said was part of Iran’s so-called ghost fleet.
Trump downplayed the impact of rising oil prices on American consumers, noting that while U.S. crude touched $96 a barrel, “people thought it was going to be a lot worse. Today I looked at $96 a barrel, people thought that was going to be $300 a barrel.” But markets told a different story: oil prices fell nearly 3% on Friday, with U.S. crude trading above $90, as signs of reduced Chinese consumption and increased U.S. crude exports helped offset some of the supply losses from the conflict.
Without a breakthrough, the continuing standoff suggests that Tehran believes it can endure the current level of pressure longer than Washington, betting that rising domestic political pain in the U.S. may force Trump to back away from some of his objectives. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi earlier said there had been “no tangible progress” in talks, even though the two sides continued to exchange messages through intermediaries.
Ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed no commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz on Friday morning, compared to three passages in each direction on Thursday. A U.S. official familiar with Central Command said American forces have counted nearly 1,000 commercial vessel transits in and out of the strait over the past two months — still far below the pre-conflict average of more than 100 ships per day carrying oil and gas from the Persian Gulf.
The conflict, which began on Feb. 28, has also exposed fractures in Trump’s political standing. The president’s trip to Wisconsin for a domestic event came after two rebukes by the Republican-led Congress. First, the House voted to halt the war — a largely symbolic move that underscored the president’s loosening grip on Capitol Hill, with four GOP members joining Democrats. Then Congress passed legislation to provide additional aid to Ukraine and impose more sanctions on Russia.
Such moves reflect the economic strain the war has placed on ordinary Americans. Inflation has surged since the conflict erupted, eroding paychecks and frustrating consumers already struggling with high living costs. A New York Times/Siena poll taken in May found that 64% of Americans believe going to war with Iran was the wrong decision.
Earlier this week, the conflict intensified when Iran fired missiles and drones at Kuwait and Bahrain, killing one person and injuring dozens at Kuwait’s main airport. That incident was the worst of several flare-ups since a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire took hold on April 8.
— With assistance from Sherif Tarek, Arsalan Shahla, Devika Krishna Kumar, Tony Capaccio, Laura Davison, Derek Wallbank and John Harney.
(Updates with conflict details in sixth paragraph.)
©2026 Bloomberg L.P.