US violent crime fell at record pace in 2025, White House says as FBI data nears release

Violent crime across the United States fell last year at the steepest rate on record, a White House official said Friday, as the FBI prepared to publish its final national crime tally for 2025. The official cited an 18.1% drop in the murder rate compared with the previous year.

Other major categories also posted sharp declines. Aggravated assaults were down 7.2%, rapes fell 7.6%, and robbery dropped 18.5%, according to the official. Motor vehicle theft plunged 22.7% and burglary decreased 15.8%.

The numbers reflect a broader trend that criminologists have tracked for several years: reported violent crime has been steadily receding from the pandemic-era surge that peaked in 2020 and 2021. The FBI is expected to release its finalized Uniform Crime Reporting data later today, and President Trump is scheduled to address the decline at an afternoon press conference, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Since taking office in January 2025, the Trump administration has projected a hard-line stance on public safety. That approach has included aggressive immigration enforcement in multiple cities, which drew national attention after two U.S. citizens, Renee Good and Alex Pretti, were fatally shot in Minneapolis during an operation. The administration has also deployed National Guard troops to several urban centers. In Washington, D.C., Guard units were sent to help local police combat persistent vehicle theft and gun violence, a decision that remains a flashpoint of public debate.

But many criminal justice experts caution against attributing the decline to any single policy or leader. They point instead to a convergence of factors, including demographic shifts, behavioral changes, and the lingering effects of the overdose crisis.

“The homicide drop is historic and crystal clear. But right now, what’s driving it is about as clear as a glass of milk,” said Adam Gelb, CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan think tank that released an early analysis of police department data.

“Rates are falling in cities with very different public safety strategies, economic conditions, and political leadership. The consistency across the map should make us cautious about handing credit to any one leader, party, policy, or program before the evidence catches up,” he said.

Gelb also noted that societal shifts could be playing a role: technology keeping more people at home, a continued decline in alcohol abuse, and a tragic but consequential surge in overdose deaths that has left tens of thousands fewer “high-risk” individuals in the population compared with five years ago. Each of these factors, he said, may help explain the historic drop in homicides.

This is a developing story and will be updated.