Who's winning the U.S.-Iran war? Nobody. Here's why.
LONDON — If you aren't winning a war, does that mean you're losing it? That is the question Washington and Tehran have been wrestling with for six months, and there is still no clear answer.
The United States has overwhelming military force. Iran has shown it can absorb punishment, keep fighting, and make the conflict desperately expensive for its adversaries. One side is trying to convert battlefield dominance into political leverage; the other seems to believe that survival is victory. The result, according to veteran Iran analysts, is a stalemate in which neither side can ultimately win.
“This war can't be assessed like other wars. It's very unconventional. It's not about who's winning and who's losing. The two sides are creating costs for each other on different fronts,” said Omid Memarian, a senior Iran-born analyst at DAWN, a Washington-based think tank that monitors U.S. policy in the region. “The U.S. is far stronger than Iran militarily, but Iran has asymmetric capabilities that have created problems and costs for the U.S. — and we haven't seen all of those capabilities yet.”
The conflict has become a war of endurance and economic leverage. It has no obvious outcome.
Where's the exit? Trump has learned hard lessons in Iran.
The opening strikes, ordered by President Donald Trump in coordination with Israel, came after Israel launched a surprise attack on Iranian military and nuclear facilities and the two countries traded fire across the region. The campaign decapitated Iran's leadership without collapsing the state. It set back Iran's nuclear and missile programs without fully destroying them. In the Strait of Hormuz — the strategic chokepoint through which much of the world's oil and natural gas moves — Tehran still restricts shipping, although U.S. Navy patrols appear to have made some progress in letting more vessels through.
Clionadh Raleigh, a professor of conflict at the University of Sussex and founder of the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, said the United States is now leaning harder on economic pressure because its military campaign has failed to break the deadlock.
“Iran is doing much the same thing from the other side: using the Strait of Hormuz, threats to shipping, cyberattacks and disruption to make this conflict increasingly expensive for the U.S. and its allies,” she said.
The salient question is: What happens now?
Mediation efforts by Qatar, Turkey and Egypt have stalled over the past six weeks, though Pakistan has sought to revive them in recent days. Trump has even threatened to bomb Oman, another country trying to act as a diplomatic bridge to find a way out of the war. Iran has warned that vessels violating its transit arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz could face fines, detention, or confiscation.
On Aug. 24, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled a fresh round of sanctions — dubbed by the administration “Operation Economic Outcast” — that he said would “sever every economic lifeline” sustaining Iran. The measures target any country that does business with Iran's aviation, shipping and tech sectors. Tehran vowed to retaliate and is rebuilding its military; some reports suggest it may be considering expanding the war, including escalation into Europe.
“If these sanctions bite the Iranian economy hard, I would not be surprised if the Iranians decide to escalate again by sending more drones and cruise missiles to the Gulf States,” said Daniel DePetris, a fellow at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank that advocates for a smaller U.S. global military footprint. “The Iranians are not going to sit back and let their economy get squeezed in perpetuity. They've got to respond in some way.”
DePetris said he did not think Iran would pursue a traditional ground war in Europe, but could turn to cyberattacks because “they're sort of deniable and the cost is not necessarily significant in terms of loss of life and even the economic damage is usually limited depending on the target.”
British officials have blamed hackers linked to Iran for a cyberattack in late August that caused a British power plant to be temporarily shut down. It came after London said it gave permission for the United States to launch “defensive” operations against Tehran from British military bases.
The wider consequences have rippled through the international security and economic order. The war upended global energy markets. Six months on, oil prices remain high, inflation has surged and economic growth has slowed. In Iran, transportation costs have quadrupled, Memarian said. He described a sandwich shop in Tehran where prices change so quickly that the menu is displayed on a digital ticker near the cashier, updating in real time like stock-market quotes.
“Inflation in Iran is very scary,” he said.
The United States and Israel have also found themselves increasingly isolated from allies who oppose the war, even if they share concerns about Iran's clerical government and its support for militant groups in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. Iranian missiles and drones have damaged U.S. intelligence posts and surveillance hardware across the Middle East.
At least 18 U.S. military personnel have been killed, according to the latest Pentagon data. The United Nations estimates at least 3,375 Iranian civilians have been killed, including nearly 500 women.
What Americans think: Approval for Iran war reaches new low
There are political costs at home, too. Trump's White House has spent months sustaining a war that polls consistently show Americans did not want, do not fully understand, and believe has damaged the president's standing. On July 21, 2026, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth appeared before the Senate Appropriations Committee alongside Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins to request supplemental funding amid the escalation.
DePetris called Trump's 2018 decision to pull the United States out of the Obama-era nuclear deal the “original sin” that set the stage for the current war. The United Nations' nuclear watchdog had repeatedly said that deal was limiting Iran's enriched uranium stockpile.
“The American people are looking at this and saying, 'Look, my food prices are going up, my gas prices are going up. And every one of the goals that you said we would accomplish have not been accomplished. Whether it's getting the Iranians to hand over their nuclear enrichment capabilities or opening the Strait of Hormuz,'” DePetris said.
The war has also had, from Washington's perspective, a counterproductive effect. Critics of Iran's clerical rulers initially hoped the bombing campaign — which killed the country's most senior military and religious officials, including its supreme leader — might trigger a collapse. Early on, Trump floated the possibility of “regime change” before walking it back.
That did not happen. As civilian deaths mounted into the thousands and homes and infrastructure were destroyed, many Iranians lost faith in U.S. leadership and Trump's intentions.
“Aggression and siege warfare have wrecked the image of the U.S. in a way that could have never been accomplished by the Iranian government,” said Seyed Mohammad Marandi, a Tehran-based Iranian-American academic and political analyst close to Iran's government. Marandi served as an adviser to Iran's negotiating team during the Obama-era nuclear talks and remains involved in Iran's overseas diplomatic efforts.
“Iran is winning this war,” he said.