Winter Storms Meet Tight Capacity: Why This Year's Trucking Turmoil Is Different
Winter has always been a disruptive force in trucking, but the turbulence shaking the freight market this January points to a deeper, more systemic strain. Data from FreightWaves SONAR reveals that while spot rates typically see seasonal spikes, the current volatility is being supercharged by a capacity crunch, with carrier tender rejections soaring past 13%—far above levels considered inflationary.
The National Truckload Index (NTI), which tracks the national average spot rate per mile, hit $2.71 in January. When compared to the same period in 2023 and 2024, this year's rate movements show a sharper, more pronounced reaction to weather events. Analysts note that in years past, winter storms caused temporary bottlenecks. This year, they are exposing a market already operating on a razor's edge.
(Chart: SONAR National Truckload Index (NTI) comparison for Jan 2023-2025. The NTI represents the national average dry van spot rate, inclusive of fuel.)
The critical differentiator is the Tender Rejection Index. At 13.42%, rejections have surpassed even the typical holiday peak. For context, rates typically face upward pressure when rejections exceed 7-8%. The current level indicates carriers are being highly selective, often walking away from contracted shipments to chase more lucrative spot market loads. This behavior disrupts shippers' routing guides and forces more freight into a competitive spot market.
(Chart: SONAR Tender Rejection Index seasonal overlay. The index measures the percentage of loads rejected by carriers after being tendered by shippers.)
"This isn't just about snow and ice," said a veteran freight broker who requested anonymity. "It's about a market that has no slack left. A storm doesn't just delay trucks anymore; it triggers a bidding war." The combination of persistent driver shortages, regulatory pressures, and tighter carrier margins has created a baseline of tight capacity. Winter weather acts not as a solo disruptor, but as a multiplier on an already tense situation.
The implications are stark for all parties. Shippers face higher, less predictable costs and must scramble for capacity. Carriers gain short-term leverage but risk damaging long-term relationships. For brokers, the role of real-time data intelligence becomes critical to navigating the chaos.
As February unfolds, the industry is watching closely. If high rejection rates persist, the market may see sustained upward pressure on rates, influencing upcoming contract negotiations. The data suggests we are in a fundamentally different cycle—one where external shocks are amplified by internal fragility.
Industry Voices: Reactions to the Volatility
Michael Rodriguez, Logistics Manager at a Midwest retailer: "We budgeted for winter surcharges, but this is different. It's the consistency of the pressure. We're having to re-tender loads multiple times, which kills our efficiency. It feels like the contract market is unraveling a bit."
Sarah Chen, Owner-Operator based in Texas: "Finally, some leverage. For years we ran at a loss. Now, if the load doesn't pay enough to cover my costs and time, especially in bad weather, I'm saying no. It's simple economics. Shippers need to understand that reliable capacity isn't cheap."
David "Bull" Mahoney, Freight Broker with 30 years experience: "It's a mess, and frankly, it's self-inflicted by the big shippers. They squeezed carriers to the bone on rates for two years, drove smaller guys out of business, and now they're shocked there's no capacity? The 13% rejection rate is a vote of no confidence in their contracted rates. You get what you pay for."
Priya Sharma, Supply Chain Analyst: "This is a clear signal for shippers to build more resilience. Diversifying your carrier base, investing in visibility tools, and factoring this new volatility into your models is no longer optional. The 'just-in-time' mindset is colliding with a 'just-in-case' reality."