Zambia’s high-stakes vote puts Hichilema’s economic record to the test
Zambians head to the polls on Thursday for a tightly contested election that will test whether President Hakainde Hichilema’s economic reforms have done enough to ease the pain of high living costs in one of Africa’s most stable democracies.
Hichilema, 64, is seeking a second term against Brian Mundubile, a 55-year-old former minister and onetime ally of late president Edgar Lungu. Mundubile emerged as the candidate to beat after a coalition of opposition parties united behind him, reshaping what had once looked like a comfortable path to re-election for the president.
More than 8.7 million Zambians are registered to vote, and a majority of them are women. Their decision will hinge on whether they believe Hichilema deserves more time to complete an economic turnaround or whether the opposition’s promise of change speaks more directly to their everyday struggles.
Hichilema has said the election is about protecting the gains made since 2021, when he won the presidency on his sixth attempt and inherited a country in sovereign default after years of heavy borrowing under Lungu. His victory was celebrated as a rare peaceful transfer of power through the ballot box on a continent where such transitions are still exceptional.
His administration has since secured a landmark debt restructuring agreement, restored an International Monetary Fund program, and brought the economy back to growth, moves that have won praise from global lenders and investors. But at home, many Zambians say those improvements have not filtered down quickly enough.
Food prices remain high, unemployment is widespread, and poverty is still entrenched. According to World Bank data, more than 70 percent of the country’s population lives on less than $3 a day.
“Worldwide there has been recognition that we are doing well but he needs to bring it home,” Semi Malama, a 26-year-old medical student, told AFP.
Zambia, Africa’s second-largest copper producer, has set an ambitious target of tripling production by 2031. Chinese companies are major players in the mining sector, giving Beijing outsized economic influence over a country that is once again looking to attract investment.
The opposition has leaned heavily into public frustration over household finances, arguing that reforms have not delivered better lives for ordinary people despite the macroeconomic recovery. Until the opposition coalesced behind Mundubile, re-election had looked all but certain for “HH,” as Hichilema is widely known. Fourteen candidates are on the ballot, but analysts say the race has effectively narrowed to a two-person contest.
“The opposition alliance is bringing energy to their rallies and appealing to youth, women, and rural voters,” Joseph Siegle, director of research at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, told AFP.
Mundubile’s strategy is built around consolidating the support base of Lungu’s Patriotic Front, especially in the north and east where the former ruling party has historically dominated, according to political analyst Louw Nel. But his late entry and ties to the Lungu era could limit his ability to broaden beyond that base, Nel added.
Nearly half of registered voters are between 18 and 35, making young people a potentially decisive bloc.
“Ultimately, the election will hinge on whether voters believe continuity offers the best chance of consolidating recent economic reforms, or whether they conclude that change is needed to address immediate economic pressures,” Zenge Simakoloyi, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, told AFP.
The campaign has not been entirely peaceful. Police have used tear gas to break up clashes between rival supporters, and Mundubile’s National Republican Party (NRPUP) has accused authorities of restricting its campaign activities. The opposition leader last week alleged that snipers were deployed at a rally in Mongu, about 580 kilometers (360 miles) west of Lusaka, calling the tear gas used there “just the tip of the iceberg.”
Polling stations will be open from 0600 local time (0400 GMT) Thursday for 12 hours. In addition to the presidency, Zambians will choose an expanded parliament, with directly elected members rising from 156 to 226.
Presidential results are expected by August 17, according to the electoral commission’s calendar. To win in the first round, a candidate must secure more than 50 percent of valid votes; otherwise, the top two will face a runoff.
The outcome could come down to relatively small shifts in support across Zambia’s 10 provinces, Simakoloyi said. It will also be watched as a test of Zambia’s reputation for political stability, amid growing concerns over restrictions on dissent and a narrowing political space.