Citi Doubles Down on AppLovin: Maintains Buy Rating with $820 Target, Citing E-Commerce Surge

In a note to clients on January 20, Citigroup analyst Jason Bazinet maintained a Buy rating on AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP), setting a price target of $820. The affirmation underscores growing confidence in the mobile advertising technology firm's strategic pivot beyond gaming into the high-growth e-commerce sector.

Bazinet's optimism is primarily fueled by the "Axon"-driven momentum within AppLovin's software platform. He noted a "significant increase" in e-commerce clients adopting Axon over a short period, with particular strength in its penetration among Shopify merchants. A substantial portion of these Shopify clients are U.S.-based, a metric viewed positively for its depth and monetization potential. "The improvement in customer quality and the accelerating Axon adoption curve are translating into tangible financial momentum," the analyst's report suggested.

This vote of confidence follows closely on the heels of initiation coverage by Evercore ISI. On January 14, analyst Robert Coolbrith started coverage with an Outperform rating and an $835 price target. Coolbrith characterized AppLovin as a "dominant mobile gaming ad-tech platform" that is successfully building an "emerging e-commerce performance channel." He projected that combined ad spend from mobile gaming and e-commerce could sustain a revenue and EBITDA compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 30% between 2025 and 2028.

AppLovin's core business involves providing a software platform that helps advertisers market and monetize their mobile content more effectively. The recent analyst focus, however, has shifted toward its potential to capture a larger share of the performance marketing budgets from online retailers.

Market Voices:

• Michael Tan, Portfolio Manager at Horizon Capital: "The dual endorsements from Citi and Evercore aren't surprising. AppLovin is executing a textbook platform expansion. Axon's traction with Shopify merchants proves they can compete outside their core gaming vertical. The 30%+ CAGR thesis is ambitious but not implausible if this momentum holds."
• Sarah Chen, Independent Tech Analyst: "Let's not get carried away. This is classic 'analysis by price target.' The stock has already had a massive run. An $820 target just validates the current hype. Where's the deep dive on rising customer acquisition costs or competition from The Trade Desk and Google? This feels more like cheerleading than critical analysis."
• David Reeves, Retail Investor: "As a small business owner using Shopify, I've seen Axon's tools pop up more often. If they're making it easier for shops like mine to find customers, that's a powerful network effect. The analyst notes finally connect the dots between the tech and real-world utility."

The sustained bullish sentiment from major firms indicates Wall Street is increasingly viewing AppLovin's story as one of a successful diversification play, rather than a pure-play mobile gaming ad company.