Evercore ISI Backs AppLovin with Outperform Rating, Sees Growth Fueled by E-Commerce Ad Push
In a significant vote of confidence for the mobile advertising sector, Evercore ISI has initiated coverage on AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP) with an Outperform rating. The firm set a price target of $835, pointing to the company's successful foray into e-commerce advertising as a major catalyst for future growth.
Analysts at Evercore argue that AppLovin is not only consolidating its leadership in mobile gaming monetization but is also rapidly emerging as a vital channel for e-commerce marketers. This dual-engine strategy, they suggest, substantially expands the company's total addressable market. "AppLovin is uniquely positioned at the intersection of two high-growth digital advertising verticals," the report noted, citing the platform's technology and scale.
The bullish outlook is underpinned by projections that combined spending on mobile gaming and e-commerce ads will propel AppLovin's revenue and EBITDA to grow by a minimum of 30% annually from 2025 through 2028. Third-party data and industry checks reportedly confirm strong recent momentum for the platform. Evercore's model anticipates that by fiscal 2028, AppLovin could capture a single-digit to low double-digit share of direct-to-consumer e-commerce ad spend, translating to approximately $3.4 billion in revenue from an estimated $7.5 billion in ad expenditures.
AppLovin, which operates through its Advertising and Apps segments, provides a software platform for app developers to monetize their user base. The company also develops and publishes its own portfolio of free-to-play mobile games.
Market Voices: A Mix of Optimism and Skepticism
David Chen, Portfolio Manager at Horizon Capital: "Evercore's analysis is spot-on. AppLovin's AXON technology is a genuine differentiator. Capturing even a modest slice of the massive e-commerce ad pie fundamentally changes the growth narrative and justifies the premium valuation."
Rebecca Shaw, Tech Analyst at ClearView Insights: "While the e-commerce opportunity is real, execution risk remains high. They're competing with entrenched giants. The 30%+ annual growth forecast through 2028 seems exceptionally aggressive and prices in near-perfect execution."
Marcus Holt, Independent Investor & Newsletter Author: "Here we go again—another Wall Street firm slapping a sky-high target on a stock after a huge run-up. This feels like narrative-chasing. Where was this 'outperform' call six months ago? The projections are a fantasy built on hypothetical market share gains. Retail investors should be wary."
Priya Mehta, Venture Partner at Spark Ventures: "The strategic pivot is impressive. It shows management's agility. If they can leverage their gaming data to improve e-commerce ad targeting, they create a powerful, cross-vertical network effect that's very defensible."