Costa Rica Votes Amid Security Crisis, With Conservative Favorite Poised for Victory
Polls closed and counting began Sunday evening in Costa Rica's presidential election, a contest overwhelmingly focused on the country's escalating security crisis and the promise of a heavy-handed response from the conservative frontrunner.
Laura Fernandez, the candidate of the ruling Social Democratic Progress Party, is widely expected to become the next president of a nation once celebrated as a stable democracy in Central America, but now grappling with a dramatic surge in homicides linked to international drug cartels.
Pre-election surveys suggested Fernandez, a 39-year-old political scientist and protégé of outgoing President Rodrigo Chaves, could secure the 40% threshold needed for a first-round victory against a fractured field of 20 candidates. Her platform, inspired by the hardline security policies of El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele, has resonated with voters alarmed by violence.
A Fernandez win would cement a recent conservative trend in Latin American politics, following electoral gains by the right in Chile, Bolivia, and Honduras. It would also empower her declared mission to secure a parliamentary majority large enough to overhaul the judiciary and amend the constitution—a prospect that has ignited fierce debate about democratic safeguards.
The electoral backdrop is a national emergency. Costa Rica has evolved from a transit corridor for cocaine into a strategic logistics center for Mexican and Colombian cartels, with violent local spillover. The homicide rate has skyrocketed by 50% over the past six years, reaching 17 per 100,000 inhabitants. In the densely packed informal settlements of the capital, San José, gang shootouts have become commonplace.
President Chaves, under whom Fernandez served as planning minister and chief of staff, has blamed an "overly-permissive judiciary" for the crime wave. Fernandez has vowed to continue his approach, pledging to finish building a maximum-security prison modeled on Bukele's controversial CECOT facility, stiffen prison sentences, and impose states of emergency in high-crime areas.
Her detractors, however, warn of democratic erosion. Former President and Nobel Peace laureate Oscar Arias cautioned that "the survival of democracy" was at stake, suggesting the push for constitutional reform was a path for leaders to cling to power. Opposition candidates have compared the confrontational, anti-elite rhetoric of Fernandez and Chaves to that of Bukele and former U.S. President Donald Trump.
"At what point did we go from dreaming of being the Switzerland of Central America to dreaming of being El Salvador?" asked left-wing presidential candidate Ariel Robles during the campaign. Centrist economist Alvaro Ramos warned that "modern dictatorships don't always arrive with tanks."
Fernandez has insisted she will "safeguard democratic stability," but the campaign laid bare a nation at a crossroads: choosing between a promise of order through forceful means and fears about the foundations of its democratic institutions.
Voter Voices & Analyst Reactions
Mariana Vargas, 42, School Teacher in San José: "I voted for Fernandez out of sheer desperation. We can't live like this anymore, looking over our shoulders. Maybe we need a firm hand now to clean up this mess, even if it makes me uncomfortable. Stability first, then we can worry about the finer points of democracy."
Dr. Eduardo Rojas, Political Analyst at the University of Costa Rica: "This election is a referendum on the state's failure to provide security. Fernandez's likely victory is less about ideology and more about a pragmatic, fearful electorate seeking immediate solutions. The real test will be whether her administration can reduce violence without permanently damaging judicial independence and human rights protections."
Carlos Mendiola, 58, Human Rights Lawyer: "This is a catastrophic moral failure. We are willingly trading our hard-won democracy for the false idol of security. Borrowing Bukele's blueprint means adopting his disregard for due process. We are not solving crime; we are institutionalizing authoritarianism. History will judge this day harshly."
Ana Cristina Guerrero, 31, Small Business Owner in Limón: "I didn't vote for her, but I understand why people did. My cousin was caught in a crossfire last year. When you're scared every day, you'll listen to anyone who says they can fix it. I just hope the fix doesn't break something else we can't repair."