Equitable Holdings Q4 Earnings Preview: Can the Insurer Surprise Wall Street?
Equitable Holdings (NYSE: EQH) is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, providing a critical look into the health of the financial services firm as macroeconomic uncertainties loom.
The company last quarter posted revenue of $3.74 billion, edging past analyst forecasts by 3.2%, though earnings per share fell short of estimates. This time, Wall Street anticipates revenue to remain essentially flat year-over-year at around $3.91 billion—a sharp deceleration from the 11.1% growth recorded in the same period last year. Adjusted EPS is projected at $1.75.
Analyst estimates have held steady over the past month, suggesting expectations are muted. Notably, Equitable has missed revenue estimates in six of the past eight quarters, raising the stakes for this report.
Recent results from sector peers offer mixed signals. The Hartford reported strong revenue growth of 6.7%, soundly beating expectations, while AXIS Capital also surpassed forecasts with an 8.9% increase. Both insurers have seen their stocks hold up relatively well in a sector that has declined 2.6% on average over the past month. In contrast, Equitable's shares have dropped 6.4% over the same period and trade well below the average analyst price target of $62.33.
The broader insurance landscape faces headwinds from debates over potential tariff policies and corporate tax changes, injecting volatility into the market. Against this backdrop, Equitable's ability to manage costs and protect margins will be closely scrutinized.
What Analysts and Observers Are Saying:
"Equitable's core retirement and protection businesses need to show operational resilience," says Michael Torres, a portfolio manager at Horizon Advisors. "Flat revenue isn't the concern—it's whether they can deliver on the bottom line and maintain capital flexibility in this rate environment."
"Another miss would be unacceptable," argues Sarah Chen, independent market commentator. "The stock has underperformed for a reason. Management's credibility is on the line if they can't hit these modest targets while peers like Hartford excel. Investors are tired of excuses."
"I'm watching their inflows in wealth management," notes David Riggs, a retirement plan specialist. "In a shaky market, their advisory platforms could see net positives if clients seek stability. That might be the quiet upside this quarter."
"The whole sector is getting punished by macro fears," adds Rebecca Moore, editor at Insurance Insight Daily. "But Equitable's product mix might actually be a buffer. If they guide well for 2025, this could be a turning point."