Exclusive: Iran's Leadership Fears U.S. Military Action Could Spark Uncontrollable Uprising, Sources Reveal

By Parisa Hafezi

DUBAI, Feb 2 (Reuters) – Iran’s leadership is grappling with a profound internal fear: that a U.S. military strike, however limited, could act as a catalyst, reigniting widespread street protests and potentially jeopardizing its grip on power, six current and former officials told Reuters.

The concern stems from an assessment that the government’s bloody suppression of anti-government unrest last month—the most severe since the 1979 Revolution—has fundamentally altered the public’s tolerance. In confidential briefings to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, officials reportedly stated that popular anger has reached a point where traditional tactics of intimidation may no longer deter dissent.

"The calculus of fear has changed," said one official familiar with the discussions. "An external shock, like a U.S. strike, could fuse with this simmering public rage and create a scenario that inflicts irreparable damage on the political establishment. That is the core anxiety at the highest levels."

The private admissions mark a stark contrast to Tehran’s public defiance toward both domestic protesters and the United States. While the sources did not disclose Khamenei’s response, the very existence of such warnings highlights deep-seated vulnerabilities within the regime.

The reporting aligns with signals from Washington, where multiple sources indicated last week that President Donald Trump is considering targeted options against Iran. The aim, they said, would be to bolster protesters, though regional allies have cautioned that air power alone is unlikely to topple the clerical system.

A Fractured Social Contract

Analysts note a critical shift in the public mood. Unlike past incidents, such as the June attacks on nuclear facilities which failed to spark domestic unrest, the aftermath of January's violent crackdown has left a society raw with grievance.

"The wall of fear has collapsed. There is no fear left," a former senior moderate official said, describing a populace "extremely angry" over economic despair, political repression, and systemic corruption.

Tensions are palpably high. The U.S. deployment of an aircraft carrier group to the region has expanded Trump's military options, following his repeated threats over Iran's handling of the protests.

Echoes from within the exiled and silenced opposition underscore the depth of the crisis. In a statement published by the pro-reform Kalameh website, former Prime Minister Mirhossein Mousavi, under house arrest since 2011, warned of "boiling public anger" and declared, "Enough is enough. The game is over."

The Specter of a Vicious Cycle

While streets are currently quiet, analysts and insiders warn that grievances are merely dormant. A combination of foreign pressure and renewed protests, they fear, could lead to a more determined and experienced demonstration force, one with "little left to lose."

Officials also grimly predict a harsher response from security forces if the state itself is under attack, raising the specter of a catastrophic bloodbath. The tragic human cost was underscored by a Tehran resident, whose 15-year-old son was killed on January 9. "They answered our call for a normal life with bullets," he told Reuters. "If America attacks, I will go back to the streets to take revenge for my son."

Despite the bellicose rhetoric, both Washington and Tehran have left the door ajar for diplomacy concerning their longstanding nuclear dispute. Yet, the underlying social fissures within Iran now present a parallel and potentially more volatile crisis.

Voices & Reaction

Dr. Anahita Rostami, Political Sociologist at University of Tehran: "The regime's dilemma is existential. Its legitimacy, already strained, cannot withstand another major confluence of external pressure and internal revolt. They are navigating a minefield of their own making."

Marcus Johnson, Security Analyst at the Gulf States Institute: "This reporting reveals the strategic paradox. A U.S. strike intended to weaken the regime could indeed trigger chaos, but it's a gamble with uncontrollable outcomes for Iranian civilians caught in the middle."

Sarah Chen, Human Rights Advocate: "It's monstrous. The discussion isn't about preventing further bloodshed but about managing it to retain power. The world watches as officials coldly calculate how much violence their population can endure before breaking the state itself."

David Fischer, Former State Department Official: "The administration must weigh this carefully. Leveraging internal dissent as a weapon is a dangerous strategy that often backfires, empowering hardliners on all sides and devastating ordinary people."

(Writing by Parisa Hafezi; Editing by Samia Nakhoul and William Maclean)