Khamenei Warns U.S. Strike Would Ignite "Regional War" as Gulf Tensions Simmer

TEHRAN — Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared on Sunday that any military action by the United States would set off a "regional war," marking his starkest warning yet as a U.S. carrier group patrols nearby and diplomatic efforts to defuse the crisis appear stalled.

The threat, delivered to a crowd at his Tehran compound and reported by the Tasnim news agency, comes in direct response to President Trump’s recent threats of intervention following Iran’s severe crackdown on nationwide protests. "The Americans must be aware that if they wage a war this time, it will be a regional war," Khamenei stated, framing any potential conflict as a defensive necessity. "We are not the instigators... But if anyone shows greed and wants to attack or harass, the Iranian nation will deal a heavy blow to them."

Analysts view the statement as a significant escalation in rhetoric, aimed at deterring U.S. action by highlighting the risk of a broader Middle East conflagration that could draw in Iran’s regional proxies. The warning follows the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to international waters near the Persian Gulf—a move Washington described as a response to "troubling and escalatory indications" from Iran.

President Trump, speaking to reporters at Mar-a-Lago on Sunday, dismissed Khamenei’s warning. "Of course he is going to say that," Trump remarked, while reiterating his dual-track approach of pressure and potential negotiation. "We have the biggest, most powerful ships in the world over there... and hopefully we'll make a deal. We don't make a deal, then we'll find out whether or not he was right."

Behind the scenes, U.S. regional allies including Turkey and Qatar are scrambling to arrange a diplomatic off-ramp. A potential meeting is being planned in Turkey this week, though a senior U.S. official told CBS News that American participation remains uncertain.

The geopolitical standoff unfolds against a grim domestic backdrop in Iran. Khamenei hardened his position on the recent protests, which began in late December over economic grievances but evolved into a direct challenge to the ruling establishment. He labeled the unrest a "sedition" akin to a coup attempt. Meanwhile, the human cost continues to be fiercely contested. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, citing sources within Iran, reports it has verified 6,713 deaths, mostly protesters, with at least 49,500 detained. Iranian authorities, who have severely restricted internet access, put the official death toll at 3,117—a figure that still represents the deadliest period of civil unrest in decades, evoking memories of the 1979 revolution.

Adding to the volatility, Iran has scheduled live-fire military exercises in the strategic Strait of Hormuz for Sunday and Monday. The U.S. Central Command has issued warnings against any actions that threaten American vessels or disrupt vital oil shipping lanes in the narrow chokepoint, through which a fifth of globally traded oil passes.

Reaction & Analysis

Dr. Anahita Shirazi, Middle East Security Analyst at the Gulf States Institute: "Khamenei’s 'regional war' warning is a classic deterrence strategy, signaling to Washington that the cost of conflict would be unacceptably high. It’s less a declaration of intent and more a calculated move to strengthen Iran’s bargaining position should talks eventually materialize."

Mark Dobson, Former U.S. State Department Official: "The administration’s maximum pressure campaign has backed Iran into a corner. While the intent was to force negotiation, the result has been increased regional militarization and a regime more focused on survival than compromise. The window for diplomacy is narrowing rapidly."

Rebecca Cole, Political Commentator & Host of 'The Clear Eye' Podcast: "This is brinkmanship of the most dangerous kind. Trump’s erratic 'deal or no deal' posturing meets Khamenei’s revolutionary defiance. Meanwhile, real people are being killed by the thousands in the streets of Iran. The world is obsessing over a potential war while largely ignoring the one the regime is already waging against its own citizens."

Professor Karim Al-Zubairi, International Relations, University of Jordan: "The regional war scenario is not an empty threat. Iran has spent decades building a network of militias from Yemen to Lebanon. A U.S. strike would not be a contained surgical operation; it would trigger retaliatory attacks on U.S. assets and allies across the Middle East, potentially collapsing already fragile regional economies."