Genmab Shares Face Target Cut After EPKINLY Trial Misses Survival Goal, But Analysts Keep Faith

Danish biotech firm Genmab A/S (NASDAQ: GMAB), a prominent name in European growth stocks, saw a key analyst adjust its outlook this week. Investment bank H.C. Wainwright reduced its price target on the company to $39 from $41, while reaffirming a Buy rating. The move follows the release of pivotal trial data for Genmab and partner AbbVie's drug, epcoritamab (marketed as EPKINLY).

The Phase 3 EPCORE DLBCL-1 study, evaluating EPKINLY as a monotherapy for second-line diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), did not demonstrate a statistically significant improvement in overall survival compared to standard treatment regimens. DLBCL is an aggressive form of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and improving outcomes in later-line treatment remains a significant clinical challenge.

Despite this setback, analysts at H.C. Wainwright suggest the drug's accelerated approval for third-line DLBCL, granted in 2023, is likely secure for now. They point to the precedent of Roche's Columvi, which retained its accelerated approval under similar circumstances while awaiting further data. The firm's confidence is partly anchored in two additional ongoing Phase 3 trials for EPKINLY, whose results could bolster its profile.

"The market's reaction is a recalibration, not a rejection," said Dr. Anya Sharma, a biotech equity analyst at Veritas Capital. "Genmab's antibody technology platform is still highly regarded. This specific trial outcome is disappointing, but it narrows the drug's optimal use case rather than invalidates it. The focus now shifts to the other late-stage data, particularly for Rina-S."

A more critical perspective came from Mark Devlin, a portfolio manager specializing in healthcare. "This is exactly the kind of binary risk that plagues biotech investing," he remarked. "They bet big on a monotherapy label expansion, and it came up short. It puts more pressure on the partnership with AbbVie and raises questions about commercial peak sales estimates. The 'wait for the next trial' narrative is getting old."

Sarah Chen, a cancer research scientist, added context: "Overall survival is the gold standard, but it's a high bar, especially in second-line where patient populations are very heterogeneous. The complete response data from this trial still showed promise. This underscores the complexity of drug development in oncology."

Genmab, known for its antibody expertise, continues to have a robust pipeline, including the promising T-cell engager Rina-S. The company's long-term growth thesis, built on its proprietary platforms and partnerships, remains intact for many investors, even as near-term expectations are moderated.