HBAR's Path to Recovery: Technical Divergences Offer Hope Amidst Broken Accumulation Streak
Hedera (HBAR) is navigating a turbulent start to 2026, grappling with the aftershocks of a brutal market-wide correction that erased nearly 35% of its value in January. The sell-off, which intensified in late January, has left the token down over 40% from its November peak, casting a shadow over its near-term trajectory.
Beneath the surface of weak price momentum, however, a more nuanced story is unfolding. Technical analysis reveals a battle between persistent dip-buying and a recent, potentially bearish shift in investor behavior. The outcome of this struggle will likely determine whether HBAR can stage a meaningful recovery or faces further downside.
The primary source of optimism is found in HBAR's chart structure. Since late October 2025, the price has been consolidating within a falling wedge pattern—a technical formation often preceding a bullish reversal as selling pressure gradually exhausts itself. Crucially, HBAR has maintained this structure even through January's volatility, keeping the possibility of a long-term rebound technically alive.
This view is bolstered by money flow indicators. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks the flow of capital into an asset, has been trending higher since late December even as prices fell, signaling accumulation by larger players. Similarly, the Money Flow Index (MFI) has shown a sustained bullish divergence since November, suggesting traders have been consistently buying the dips for over two months.
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Yet, a significant crack has appeared in this accumulation thesis. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, which measures whether volume confirms price moves, has been deteriorating and recently broke a key support trendline. This bearish divergence suggests that recent price bounces have lacked conviction.
The root cause appears to be a shift in exchange flow dynamics. For nearly 14 consecutive weeks, HBAR saw consistent net outflows from exchanges—a classic sign of long-term accumulation. That streak abruptly ended in the week of February 2nd, which recorded net inflows of approximately $749,000. This break in the pattern indicates a potential shift from steady accumulation to a readiness among some holders to sell, explaining the OBV weakness.
"The broken outflow streak is a red flag you can't ignore," says Marcus Chen, a portfolio manager at Vertex Digital Assets. "It tells us that, while some are still buying dips, the broader market is no longer passively absorbing supply. This creates a headwind for any rally."
With conflicting signals from indicators, key price levels become paramount. Immediate support is firmly established near $0.076. A hold above this level, coupled with improving CMF/MFI readings, could allow rebound attempts to persist. A decisive break below it, however, would confirm seller dominance and could trigger a slide toward $0.062 and potentially $0.043.
On the upside, the token must first conquer resistance at $0.090, a level that has stifled rallies since January. A sustained move above this would signal returning confidence. The major test, however, lies at $0.107—the upper boundary of the falling wedge. A weekly close above this level would confirm a bullish breakout, projecting a potential 52% upside from the breakout point, though analysts caution this remains a distant prospect without a significant improvement in volume.
"Everyone's staring at the same divergences and drawing hopeful lines on a chart," remarks crypto trader and commentator Anya Petrova, known for her blunt style. "But the broken accumulation streak screams 'distribution.' This looks less like a coiled spring and more like hope propping up a failing technical narrative. I'd need to see those exchange outflows return before believing in any rebound."
"The data is genuinely mixed, which makes this a fascinating case study," counters Dr. Aris Thorne, a fintech researcher at Kingston University. "The sustained money flow divergences are atypical in a purely bearish setup and suggest institutional or algorithmic interest. The recent inflow is a concern, but one week doesn't make a trend. The battle between these two forces will be decided at the $0.076 support."
This analysis is based on a technical report originally published by Ananda Banerjee at BeInCrypto.