Robinhood's Kalshi Parlay Launch Sparks Record-Breaking Surge, Outpacing Non-Sports Markets

In a dramatic shift for the prediction market sector, Kalshi's parlay betting product has exploded in popularity following its integration with retail trading platform Robinhood. Last Sunday, fees generated from these combination bets alone eclipsed the single-day record for all non-sports event fees in Kalshi's history, marking a pivotal moment where sports-focused wagering has become a central revenue driver for the exchange.

While parlays remain a smaller slice of Kalshi's business compared to traditional sportsbooks, they have rapidly evolved from a niche offering to a significant contributor, especially on days featuring major NFL matchups. InGame analysis of Kalshi's fees reveals that the day of the recent conference championship games set new platform records: $543.1 million in total contract volume traded, yielding $5.46 million in fees, with a staggering 93% of volume tied to sports markets.

The surge is closely tied to Robinhood's rollout of access to Kalshi parlays through its "predictions hub." Even prior to this, Robinhood was responsible for the majority of Kalshi's trading volume. The launch appears to have acted as a catalyst, sending parlay volume to record highs that easily surpassed previous peaks set on Christmas Day. On Sunday, parlay-specific fees hit $546,275, accounting for nearly 10% of Kalshi's total fee revenue for the day—a 42% week-over-week increase.

This represents a meteoric rise from Kalshi's early parlay weeks, where fees totaled less than $1,000 on the first NFL Sunday after launch. Notably, Sunday's parlay fee haul exceeded the exchange's average daily fee revenue in August, before the NFL season supercharged trading activity.

In a telling comparison, Sunday's parlay fees also topped the all-time high for non-sports fees—$498,942, set on Election Day 2025. (Non-sports fees would have been higher during the 2024 presidential election, but Kalshi waived them as a promotional tactic.)

Analysts note that while parlay volume reached $124.1 million (over a fifth of daily volume), this metric can overstate activity due to the structure of these bets. Most users can only bet on the "yes" outcome at long odds, meaning a $1 bet on a 1% probability event registers as $100 in volume, as a market maker stakes $99 against it. A more accurate measure, "parlay handle"—calculated from the "yes" side volume—hit $11.6 million on championship Sunday, crossing the eight-figure threshold for the first time.

The Robinhood effect, however, is intertwined with other factors. The heightened attention on playoff games and Kalshi's growing parlay user base also contributed. Robinhood adds a flat one-cent-per-dollar fee on top of Kalshi's variable charges, making bets at long odds—common in parlays—particularly costly for retail bettors.

Despite the current lucrative partnership, Robinhood plans to shift focus to its own CFTC-registered exchange, which will likely handle major event trading in the future. For now, the parlay boom raises questions about Kalshi's impact on the broader sports betting industry. While Kalshi's totals are minuscule compared to the state-regulated sportsbook industry, which saw over $1.6 billion in revenue last January, the growth suggests prediction markets are capturing a new segment of demand.

"The real winners here might be the market makers," notes one industry observer, pointing out that the quick quote process for Kalshi parlays limits price competition, allowing makers to price bets with a built-in margin. If market makers hold a percentage similar to sportsbooks (often over 15% of handle), they could have netted well over $1 million last Sunday alone. Major makers on Kalshi include Susquehanna International Group and Kalshi Trading, an entity owned by the exchange's parent company, which could be earning dual revenue from fees and trading profits.

The parlay rise is also subtly altering Kalshi's economics, slightly depressing its fee revenue as a percentage of total volume, as these long-odds bets carry lower fee rates. All eyes are now on Super Bowl Sunday, where volume and parlay activity are expected to shatter records again, especially with Coinbase also recently launching access to Kalshi contracts.

As traditional giants like FanDuel and DraftKings prepare to launch their own prediction market parlays via partner CME, the industry is watching to see if this is a zero-sum game or an expansion of the entire market. Needham analyst Bernie McTernan recently told CNBC he sees prediction markets as a potential "asset" for major sportsbook operators, primarily for unlocking new geographic and non-sports markets.

User Reactions

Michael R., Retail Investor: "As a Robinhood user, it's fascinating to see betting and trading converge like this. The access is seamless, but the fees on those long-shot parlays add up fast. It feels more like entertainment than investing."

Sarah Chen, Fintech Analyst: "The data shows a clear product-market fit. Robinhood's distribution power is unlocking a massive user base for Kalshi that wasn't engaged with prediction markets before. This is a case study in platform synergy."

David Park, Sports Bettor: "These fees are outrageous! Robinhood and Kalshi are layering costs on top of already terrible parlay odds. It's a sucker's bet dressed up as a fintech innovation. The house—and the market makers—are winning big while retail gets squeezed."

Lisa Ambrose, Regulatory Consultant: "The volume spike is impressive, but it highlights the blurred line between trading and gambling. As these platforms grow, scrutiny will intensify, especially around fee transparency and consumer protection for these complex products."