Russia Vows Nuclear Restraint as New START Treaty Expires, Leaving Future Uncertain
MOSCOW, Feb 5 (Reuters) — The Kremlin on Thursday sought to project an image of nuclear responsibility even as the landmark New START treaty, the final pillar of post-Cold War arms control between Russia and the United States, officially lapsed at midnight.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed the treaty's expiration, marking the end of a decade-long framework that capped each nation's deployed strategic nuclear warheads, missiles, and launchers. The development leaves the world's two largest nuclear arsenals without verifiable limits for the first time in decades.
"The agreement is coming to an end. We view this negatively and express our regret," Peskov told reporters, noting the issue had been raised in a call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping a day earlier.
Moscow had previously proposed a one-year, unconditional extension to buy time for negotiating a successor framework—a move it says Washington never formally addressed. "What happens next depends on how events unfold," Peskov stated, adding that Russia "will maintain its responsible and attentive approach to the issue of strategic stability... guided first and foremost by its national interests."
The treaty's demise follows years of deteriorating U.S.-Russia relations, exacerbated by the Ukraine conflict, cyber warfare allegations, and mutual expulsions of diplomats. Arms control experts warn the lapse could undermine strategic predictability and fuel a costly, destabilizing modernization race, with both nations already pursuing next-generation hypersonic weapons and nuclear delivery systems.
Analyst Perspectives:
Dr. Anya Petrova, Senior Fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy: "This is a predictable yet dangerous inflection point. While both sides likely wish to avoid outright escalation, the loss of verification mechanisms and dialogue channels removes critical guardrails. The focus now must be on establishing new, albeit more limited, confidence-building measures."
Mark Richardson, former Pentagon strategist and author of 'The Unstable Balance': "Moscow's 'responsible power' rhetoric rings hollow while it suspends participation in nuclear inspections and modernizes its tactical nuclear arsenal. This expiration isn't an accident; it's a strategic choice by both powers to unshackle themselves from constraints they see as outdated in an era of multi-polar threats."
Sarah Chen, advocacy director at 'Global Zero': "It's an utter failure of leadership. We're sleepwalking back into a Cold War mindset where billions are wasted on overkill capabilities while existential threats like climate change go underfunded. This isn't 'stability'—it's mutually assured paranoia."
General (Ret.) James O'Connell, NATO advisor: "The immediate operational risk is low, but the long-term signal is dire. Without a treaty, mistrust deepens, worst-case scenario planning dominates, and the threshold for miscalculation lowers. The diplomatic onus is now on both capitals to outline what 'responsible' behavior actually looks like in practice."
(Reporting by Dmitry Antonov; Writing by Andrew Osborn; Editing by Mark Trevelyan. Additional background and analysis by Reuters Global Security Desk.)