Thailand's Political Pendulum: Two Decades of Turmoil, Coups, and Courtroom Drama
BANGKOK, Feb 5 (Reuters) – For two decades, Thailand's political landscape has been a theatre of recurring crises. A relentless cycle of military coups, sprawling street protests, and decisive court interventions has toppled five prime ministers, exposing the deep-seated and often violent struggle for power between the kingdom's conservative establishment, populist movements, and reformist forces.
This persistent instability frames the national mood ahead of the February 8 general election. The following timeline charts the pivotal moments that have defined modern Thai politics, from the rise of billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra to the recent, rapid-fire ousters of his political heirs.
2005-2006: The Thaksin Era and a Royalist Backlash
Billionaire telecoms tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra secures an unprecedented second term for his Thai Rak Thai party in 2005, buoyed by popular rural support for policies like universal healthcare. By 2006, allegations of corruption and abuse of power fuel massive "Yellow Shirt" protests—royalist demonstrators accusing him of disrespecting the monarchy. In September, the military seizes power while Thaksin is abroad.
2007-2010: Proxy Governments and Bloodshed
A post-coup election returns a Thaksin-backed proxy party to power, but courts soon remove its leaders. In 2008, "Yellow Shirt" protesters shut down Bangkok's airports for 10 days. The subsequent government, led by the Democrat Party's Abhisit Vejjajiva, faces fierce opposition from Thaksin's "Red Shirt" movement. A 2010 military crackdown on Red Shirt protests leaves more than 90 dead, marking the worst political violence in decades.
2011-2014: A Shinawatra Returns, Then Another Coup
Thaksin's sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, leads the Pheu Thai party to a landslide victory in 2011. Her government's attempt to pass an amnesty for her brother sparks new anti-government protests in 2013. In 2014, after a court finds Yingluck guilty of abuse of power, army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha seizes control in a coup, installing himself as prime minister.
2017-2023: New Challengers and Old Guard Resistance
A military-drafted constitution is approved in 2017. The 2019 election sees the army-backed party form government despite Pheu Thai winning the most seats. In 2020, the progressive Future Forward Party is dissolved by court order, sparking youth-led protests that for the first time openly challenge the monarchy. Its successor, Move Forward, stuns the establishment by winning the 2023 election but is blocked from governing by conservative senators.
2023-2025: Exile's End and Revolving-Door Leadership
Pheu Thai forms a controversial coalition with pro-military parties, making real estate magnate Srettha Thavisin prime minister in August 2023. The same day, Thaksin returns from 15 years of exile. In a dramatic series of rulings in 2024, the Constitutional Court dissolves Move Forward and later removes Srettha. Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, becomes premier at 37, only to be ousted by the court in August 2025. Current PM Anutin Charnvirakul, facing a no-confidence vote, has now dissolved parliament, triggering the upcoming election.
Analysis: This timeline reveals a pattern where electoral victories for populist or reformist parties are frequently undone by judicial or military power, a dynamic that has fueled perceptions of a "deep state" protecting entrenched interests. The return and legal troubles of Thaksin Shinawatra remain the central thread, illustrating how his polarizing legacy continues to dominate the political arena.
Voices from the Ground
"We vote, they get in, then the courts or the army take them out. It feels like we're running in circles," says Chanya Sirisom, a 42-year-old schoolteacher in Bangkok. "My parents were Red Shirts, I supported Future Forward. Each generation tries, but the system seems rigged against change."
General (Ret.) Atthapol Banchong, a former army advisor, offers a conservative perspective: "Stability is paramount. The judicial and constitutional mechanisms are there to check the excesses of elected officials and prevent the kind of corruption and division we saw in the past. It is not a conspiracy; it is a necessary balance."
More pointed criticism comes from Pravit Rojanaphruk, a political commentator: "This is a farce dressed as democracy. The same script repeats: a popular vote, a judicial coup, a military waiting in the wings. It's a managed decline designed to exhaust the public's hope for genuine reform. The message is clear: you can play the game, but you cannot change the rules."
Meanwhile, Nonglak Promjit, a rice farmer from the northeast, expresses weary pragmatism: "I don't care about the colors or the courts in Bangkok. I care who helps my family. Thaksin did. That's why we keep voting for his family. If the system keeps removing them, what choice do we have but to vote for them again?"
(Reporting by Martin Petty; Edited by Raju Gopalakrishnan. Additional background and analysis by the Reuters Bangkok bureau.)