Wynn Resorts Stock Shows Bullish Signal as Key Earnings Report Looms
Wynn Resorts Ltd (NASDAQ:WYNN) is edging higher ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings report, scheduled after the market closes on Thursday, February 12. The stock, last seen up 1.9% at $109.46, has gained 32.2% over the past nine months. However, it has faced pressure since hitting a four-year peak of $134.72 on December 1, sinking to its lowest level since August just last Friday. Analysts are now pointing to a key technical indicator—a long-term bullish trendline—that could provide a floor for the shares as the earnings event approaches.
The stock has closed above its 12-month moving average for the past five months but is now trading within 3% of that level. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, this specific setup has occurred ten times over the past two decades. Historically, the equity was higher one month later in 70% of those instances, boasting an average gain of 4.2%. Extending the horizon to three months, the stock averaged a more substantial 9.2% increase, with a positive hit rate of 60%.
Wynn's post-earnings performance has been inconsistent. The stock has closed higher the day after an earnings release only half the time over recent years, though its November report triggered a 2.9% gain. Over the past two years, the average absolute next-day move has been 4.2%, regardless of direction. This time, however, options activity implies traders are bracing for a much larger swing of 10.2%.
Adding fuel to the bullish case, a short squeeze remains a possibility. While short interest declined by 20.2% in the latest reporting period, it still accounts for 5.8% of the stock's available float. A sustained rally could force further covering by bearish traders, amplifying upward momentum. Furthermore, Wynn's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) sits at 73 out of 100, indicating the stock has consistently experienced larger price swings than options markets had anticipated—a factor that could magnify moves around the earnings catalyst.
Market Voices:
"The trendline signal has a solid track record," notes David Chen, a portfolio manager at Horizon Capital. "Combined with reduced short interest, it sets up a favorable risk-reward scenario for a tactical trade into earnings."
Lisa Rodriguez, an independent retail investor, shares a more cautious view: "Macau's recovery is still uneven, and consumer spending in Las Vegas is facing headwinds. I'm not convinced one technical indicator outweighs those fundamental concerns."
Striking a sharper tone, Marcus Thorne, a financial commentator known for his critical stance, argues: "This is pure gambling dressed up as analysis. The stock is down nearly 20% from its December high for a reason—the fundamentals are softening. Chasing a 'bullish signal' before earnings is just hoping for a lucky roll of the dice."
Finally, Priya Mehta, a senior analyst at Global Market Insights, offers balance: "The technical setup is noteworthy, but the real driver will be management's outlook for 2025, especially in Macau. The options market is pricing in significant volatility, so investors should be prepared for a sizable move in either direction."